Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Bitcoin update

I wanted to compare the bitcoin forecast to the latest data even though I updated it only last week since according to the model, it should move fast (logarithmic decline of -2.6/y). Even including the "news shock" blip (basically noise) from Jamie Dimon's comments today, the path is on the forecast track:


This is a "conditional" forecast -- it depends on whether there is a major shock (positive or negative, but nearly all have been positive so far for bitcoin).

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Update 18 September 2017

Over the past week (possibly due to Dimon's comments), bitcoin took a dive. It subsequently recovered to the dynamic equilibrium trend:

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Update 25 September 2017

Continuing comparison of forecast to data:


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Update 28 September 2017

Another few days of data:


Update 4 October 2017


Update 9 October 2017


Update 11 October 2017


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Update 17 October 2017

There appears to have been yet another shock, so I considered this a failure of model usefulness. See more here.

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Also, try to avoid the use of dollar signs as they interfere with my setup of mathjax. I left it set up that way because I think this is funny for an economics blog. You can use € or £ instead.